As the Israeli election draws near, a new study finds that American Jews who are actively engaged with the Jewish community strongly prefer Israel’s opposition parties over its current government, by nearly 4-to-1, as a sizable minority abstains from voicing an opinion.

While Diaspora Jews cannot vote in Israeli elections (nor can Israeli citizens living abroad unless they fly back on Election Day, Oct. 27), the past three years have demonstrated how much the results affect them, with the rise in global antisemitism closely connected to events in Israel. 

The new poll, conducted by Jerusalem’s Jewish People Policy Institute, found that a large majority, 78%, of so-called “connected” American Jews — defined as those having “relatively strong ties to the Jewish community, Israel, and/or Jewish identity” — say that they are very or somewhat closely monitoring the election campaigns. This holds true across political affiliations, with negligible differences between liberals, centrists and conservatives. Those who have spent more time in Israel reported monitoring the election more closely. 

For years, surveys, anecdotal evidence and analysts have indicated that ties between American Jews and Israel have grown increasingly strained, even as American Jews overwhelmingly indicate feeling connected to Israel. Though this drift long precedes the Oct. 7 terror attacks and resulting wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, the past three years appear to have exacerbated these trends, as the policies and politics of Israel’s right-wing and mostly Orthodox coalition have alienated the generally more liberal American Jews, and as Israelis have bristled at American Jewish criticism for what they consider to be existential conflicts. To many Israelis and Jews in the Diaspora, the upcoming election represents a critical moment for Israel-Diaspora ties.

The majority of “connected” American Jews — 54% — said that they wanted Israel’s current opposition parties to win the upcoming election, compared with 14% who favor the governing coalition. Roughly a quarter — 24% — said that it was “not my place” to express a preference, and 8% said they had no preference. 

Among Israeli expats and others with Israeli citizenship, there is greater support for the current coalition, though it remains a minority position at 26%, while 53% said that they support opposition parties, the survey found.