“In the year 2009 two unexpected, un-expectable and counter-expected events happened, namely the global financial-economic crisis and the swearing in of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States. As to the first event, it may well be that the financial-economic crisis should in principle have been predicted in minds that had not been blinded by inadequate theories and linear views of history. As to the second, seasoned observers agree that only a few years ago the possibility that an African-American, born to a white woman and a black father would be elected by a vast majority as President of the United States of America would have been nearly inconceivable.

Taken together these two foundational events – sure to have significant impact on the future – demonstrate the nonlinear nature of historic processes, including trendshifting events. Still, states, societies and civilizations, including the Jewish People, must plan ahead and make future-directed choices. This is possible, because not everything changes rapidly. Many important features of reality are stable for extended periods of time, permitting long-term outlook and policies. However, policy planning must take into account that it is dealing with a mix of rapidly changing and very stable factors and that the border between them is not fully knowable. Therefore, policy planning methods must be uncertainty-adjusted so as to fit the conditions of the 21st century which is likely to be one of profound changes combined with quite some invariance.”

So even though the year 2030 is not exactly around the corner, it is the time horizon needed to look at when it comes to strategic thinking and policy planning for the Jewish People and the thriving of the Jewish civilization.

Guided by this, The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute (JPPPI) undertook an “exploratory project to provide insights into possible futures of the Jewish People and into the variables shaping them, with identification of policy instruments that can be used by Jewish People decision-makers to increase the probability of a thriving future for the Jewish People and decrease the probability of negative futures. While this project indicates some strategic choices, which should be made, its main purpose is to serve as a basis for policy planning, with detailed alternative developments, policy analyses and strategy recommendations to be worked out by a variety of Jewish People and other JPPPI projects.”

The paper, titled 2030: Alternative Futures for the Jewish People, summarizes a strategic thinking process conducted by the JPPPI, dedicated to the analysis of possible alternative futures for the Jewish People in the year 2030. Led by two senior JPPPI fellows, former Director General of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Amb. Avi Gil and Dr. Einat Wilf (who recently joined the Knesset), the paper highlights several key intervention points to enhance prospects leading to thriving, and to prevent the development of a nightmare future.

The complete report, 2030 Alternative Futures for the Jewish People, is available to download.

Quoted excerpts, the executive summary and the main recommendations, are all posted with permission.