We are living through an extraordinary moment in the American political drama, as few election cycles have been as emotionally tense and uncertain as this one. In some measure what we are experiencing aligns what we have seen taking place across the political spectrum, as election results among democracies in recent years have shifted nations to the political right, and that is what America is encountering. 

As this essay is being crafted, we await the final totals to confirm that former President Donald Trump will be returning to leadership as this nation’s 47th president. In 2021, I was fortunate enough to edit a volume examining the former president’s impact on American Jewry and Israel. My reflections then seem to apply now:

JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images

A person wears a kippah with the words 'Trump 47 Jewish Leadership' during the last day of the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisc., on July 18, 2024.

“The Trump presidency has resulted in a fundamentally disruptive moment in this nation’s political culture. Not only were there different policy options and directions, but the cultural artifacts of politics changed because of how this president dramatically challenged the existing norms of political behavior and action. As we have shifted from a period of American liberalism to a time of political populism, deep fissures are dividing Americans in general and Jews in particular.”

Today, there is a type of rawness in connection with American politics. Due to our deep and abiding commitment to America and its politics, one finds Jews, among so many others, exhausted, divided and uncertain about what may lie ahead, as we enter what may well be a new era as part of our American journey.

Often Jews come to these key elections with their own unique agendas, and indeed, there is reason to believe that has been the case in 2024. Jewish voters shared some common concerns as well with their fellow citizens in this election cycle. The Jewish Electorate Institute published a listing of priority issues as identified by Jewish voters:

• 46% of Jews noted that this election was about the future of democracy.
• 30% identified abortion as a primary consideration.
• 26% saw inflation and the economy as priority concerns, while 18% listed immigration.

These priorities would show up as core considerations for many voters in this election. But this same study also revealed a set of specific matters core to Jewish interests, including:

• 25% who marked Israel as a major policy item.
• 18% that viewed foreign policy and national security to be significant.

In other surveys, we can find particular references to the issue of antisemitism, as represented by studies conducted by such groups as the American Jewish Committee and the Louis D. Brandeis Center for Human Rights Under Law.

At this moment our Jewish souls are in tension with our American sensibilities. Just as we struggle with our deep abiding concerns for Israel and the welfare of our own community amidst this new strain of antisemitism, our American mindset craves for a more perfect union, where this democracy continues to flourish and where the processes of government continue to perform.

In connection with this, the 60th election of an American president, I have spent these past six months both writing and lecturing, trying to interpret this moment for Jewish audiences. Even as the vote total remains incomplete, we will see the election of two new Jewish governors, Matt Meyer (Delaware) and Josh Stein (North Carolina), the election of at least one new Jewish senator, Adam Schiff (California), with other races still too early to call. Similarly, in contests for the House of Representatives, Alexander Vindman has won Virginia’s 7th Congressional District race, Laura Friedman won California’s 30th District and Craig Goldman won his race in Texas’ 12 Congressional District. They will be joining some 25 other incumbent Jewish House members in January for the 119th Congress. Each of these outcomes will remind us of how deeply embedded Jews are within our political process.

On these pages and elsewhere, I have discussed in more broad strokes about American Jewish political behavior, and more directly on Jewish liberalism as well as the more recent rise of a new Jewish political self-consciousness.

The shift: The movement of Jewish voters

From the polling data in connection with this election, we can identify some movement among traditional Jewish Democrats, who in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 terror attacks and last spring’s disruptive anti-Israel campus actions, have transferred their support to Trump. There has been a growing body of data confirming such a political shift. The growing political footprint of the “Squad” — House Democratic progressives — served as an incentive for some of these voters to alter their party connections.

The overriding consideration among these longtime Democratic voters is Israel and their concern over who best — Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris — will be more supportive of the Jewish state. A corollary consideration has been the dual rise in antisemitism and anti-Israel expression within this country, and which candidate would be seen as a defender and protector of Jewish interests.

We have several independent polls, conducted prior to the election, one produced by Pew, where 65% of voters endorsed Harris, while 34% embraced Trump. A second study, released by Harvard’s Corporate Election Survey, shows the vice president as likely to receive 67%, while the former president garners 32%. No doubt, over the weeks ahead we will have more specific data in connection with Jewish voting on Nov. 5.

As the results of this campaign continue to be collected and evaluated, are we witnessing a fundamental political revolution in connection with American Jewish politics? Has the Jewish liberal experiment that so defined a significant part of the American electorate come to an end? While the majority of Jewish voters retained their long-held Democratic credentials, no doubt there is political transformation in play, and we are experiencing something profoundly different, whether permanent or merely a reflection of this particular election cycle.

The Jewish political homeless voter: A new phenomenon

In the aftermath of this past year, we are increasingly able to identify voters who feel less secure as Democratic voters.

Jews are facing a postmodernist political agenda orchestrated by the progressive left with its focus on woke culture, intersectionality and critical race theory that is seeking to reframe the conversation around Jews, culture and America. Beyond the emergence of the left, we are confronting a growing neoisolationist camp on the political right, where one also finds the seeds of extremism. In both scenarios, we are encountering a new conversation around whether Jews are white. For the political right, “Jews will not replace us” was the mantra introduced in 2017 in Charlottesville, Va., as they introduced “replacement theory,” their case against Jews whom they perceived as seeking to gain power by becoming “white” and in the process replacing the existing white power base. In turn, the left has framed the argument that Jews are “white” as they hold power and as such have lost their status as a minority community. For the postmodernists, being white and powerful implies that Jews are “racist Zionists.”

The recent Harvard study of young Americans defines in stark and radical terms a piece of this dangerous new reality: “The Harvard CAPS-Harris poll found that two-thirds of voters between the ages of 18 and 24 believe Jews as a class are oppressors and should be treated that way.”

The great divide: The formation of voting blocks

Increasingly, as with other American constituencies, we are seeing the evolution of two distinctive Jewish communal voting blocs: American Jewish liberals and Jewish identity voters, the former representing a deep and long-standing connection with the Democratic Party; and a coalition of disaffected Democrats, lifelong Republican Jews, along with a significant Orthodox constituency and new Jewish voters.

Redefining who Jewish voters are

Colin Woodward, the author of American Nations, suggests that it is essential to understand the United States as a series of regional areas, i.e. the Sun Belt, Bible Belt, Grain Belt, etc. What we are increasingly learning about the American Jewish vote is that it is also, comprised of a more bifurcated set of voter groups, involving identity politics voters, religious value voters (Orthodox), progressive voters, traditional liberal activists, etc. 

An alternative reality: The loss of trust

Several factors are contributing to this emerging and troubling phenomenon. The decline in trust on the part of voters in connection with American civic institutions and the presence of conspiracy theories and misrepresentations of the truth reflect a piece of this counter cultural moment. This alternative projection of reality has broad and growing influence in connection with American elections and politics, and as such has specific implications for Jews in light of the already challenging political issues around which our community must contend.

Conclusions

As the results of this election are finalized, we will likely see a fundamentally different American political culture emerge. The new political reality will be disquieting and upsetting to some sectors of our community, just as it will be embraced by others.

American Jewry will be at an entirely new political threshold, as national conservatism, Christian Nationalism and American populism take hold. Not only will America undergo a profound change, but America’s Jews will likewise experience a fundamentally different social order.

Steven Windmueller is an emeritus professor of Jewish communal studies at HUC-JIR, Los Angeles. His writings can be found on his website, www.thewindreport.com.